The Association For Manufacturing Technology’s July U.S. Manufacturing Technology Orders (USMTO) report, released in early September, triggered dozens of calls to the organization. Most were about the aberration in the data due to a change in participants. Those were easy to address. More difficult to answer were the questions about the 23.6 percent drop in orders in July 2013 versus July 2012.

The best way to allay concerns is to put this year in perspective. The market through July 2013 was just 7 percent below the first seven months of 2012, which was the best year on record since USMTO began as a program. And, the last third of the year looks very promising, starting with the August USMTO report that was a 4.9 percent improvement over July.

A quick snapshot of the globe suggests an improving situation, which reduces the competitive stress that U.S. manufacturing technology companies have been feeling. Since last November, import data have shown that the modest buildup in imported inventories appears to have stopped or slowed to an immeasurable level. This is likely due to improving key markets in Asia.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent speech from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange painted a Japan that is on an accelerated growth path, with expanding investment in manufacturing both at home and abroad. And Chinese stock markets surged in recent weeks, as economic news out of that country significantly exceeded expectations.

The EU manufacturing technology market seems to have stabilized. Last month’s EMO Hannover 2013 metalworking trade show in Germany welcomed nearly 145,000 participants, whose chief motive was not to window-shop but to invest. The financial situation in the EU seems to be improving, punctuated by the news out of Ireland as it exits the bailout scheme set with the EU.

The rebound and expansion in Asia and the EU, home to the U.S. manufacturing technology industry’s major competitors and significant customer bases, is a welcome situation. The global economic pick-up translates into less stress in our home market and greater opportunities overseas.

This is probably best illustrated in the trade numbers. U.S. manufacturing technology exports are up 2 percent, while imports have fallen by 9 percent. Advanced manufacturing products show a 9 percent growth in exports and a 14 percent decline in imports.

The domestic situation seems to be on the right track as well. Many of the economic indicators that we track at AMT are showing positive signs, and manufacturing technology looks to be on a stable growth path over the next 90 days.

Of course, we narrowly averted a major fiscal crisis when Congress, just hours before a U.S. default, passed a spending bill to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling through early next year. It remains to be seen if there will be any long-term economic impact from the two-week impasse, but another round of potentially contentious budget debates will be on our doorstep again in January.

If there are no political situations that create external pressure on the manufacturing sector, the outlook for 2013 would appear to be on track with the forecasts given in October 2012 at AMT’s Global Forecasting & Marketing Conference — which included a modest fall-off from 2012 levels. Certainly, the customers of U.S. manufacturing technology providers are doing well, expanding and holding cash on hand to make investments.

Still, our elected officials know how to make mud out of a cherry pie. Washington came perilously close to derailing the recovery of the manufacturing sector and our economy. The lack of bipartisan cooperation on critical issues affecting our global competitiveness could haunt us in the closing months of 2013. However, despite the challenges, the analysts at AMT remain optimistic for the future.

Pat McGibbon is vice president of industry intelligence and engagement for AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. Based in McLean, Va., AMT represents and promotes U.S.-based manufacturing technology and its members — those who design, build, sell, and service the continuously evolving technology that lies at the heart of manufacturing. For more, visit AMT’s website at www.amtonline.org.

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